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Thought Leadership
OUR VALUE COMES FROM AN ANALYTICAL UNDERSTANDING OF THE FORCES AT WORK IN FINANCIAL MARKETS
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![Six variables that predict defaults](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/a4fe9b_da19b4a5ba1b47b3a49b7cf7b9d75d22~mv2.jpg/v1/fill/w_474,h_474,fp_0.50_0.50,q_90,enc_auto/a4fe9b_da19b4a5ba1b47b3a49b7cf7b9d75d22~mv2.webp)
Apr 30, 2024
Six variables that predict defaults
We discuss which variables can help us predict corporate defaults The current pandemic is triggering a stark growth in corporate...
![](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/a4fe9b_7ef17d8a41b7413f9d48f1295fdef406~mv2.jpg/v1/fill/w_250,h_250,fp_0.50_0.50,q_30,blur_30,enc_auto/a4fe9b_7ef17d8a41b7413f9d48f1295fdef406~mv2.webp)
![9 facts about distress risk](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/a4fe9b_7ef17d8a41b7413f9d48f1295fdef406~mv2.jpg/v1/fill/w_474,h_474,fp_0.50_0.50,q_90,enc_auto/a4fe9b_7ef17d8a41b7413f9d48f1295fdef406~mv2.webp)
Mar 10, 2024
9 facts about distress risk
We summarise all the findings of our articles on distress risk First, financial distress can be predicted by looking at a relatively...
![Robinhoods in search of jackpot stocks](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/a4fe9b_8a3d5c4ef6074e0ebbd84092277bc7da~mv2.png/v1/fill/w_474,h_381,fp_0.50_0.50,q_95,enc_auto/a4fe9b_8a3d5c4ef6074e0ebbd84092277bc7da~mv2.webp)
Mar 10, 2024
Robinhoods in search of jackpot stocks
We discuss the role of retail investors investing in distressed stocks We have done a series of posts on the returns of distress stocks....
![](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/a4fe9b_8df17eba5c6c4995b45b17b330cd744f~mv2.jpg/v1/fill/w_250,h_250,fp_0.50_0.50,q_30,blur_30,enc_auto/a4fe9b_8df17eba5c6c4995b45b17b330cd744f~mv2.webp)
![Is it worth investing in distressed stocks?](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/a4fe9b_8df17eba5c6c4995b45b17b330cd744f~mv2.jpg/v1/fill/w_474,h_474,fp_0.50_0.50,q_90,enc_auto/a4fe9b_8df17eba5c6c4995b45b17b330cd744f~mv2.webp)
Mar 1, 2024
Is it worth investing in distressed stocks?
We investigate whether investing in stocks that are close to default generates a premium Hundreds of firms are going bust these days....
![](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/a4fe9b_f4559d56f4d94d6ab1609843dfb6c6d1~mv2.webp/v1/fill/w_250,h_250,al_c,q_30,blur_30,enc_auto/a4fe9b_f4559d56f4d94d6ab1609843dfb6c6d1~mv2.webp)
![When should you invest in distressed stocks?](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/a4fe9b_f4559d56f4d94d6ab1609843dfb6c6d1~mv2.webp/v1/fill/w_474,h_463,al_c,q_90,enc_auto/a4fe9b_f4559d56f4d94d6ab1609843dfb6c6d1~mv2.webp)
Feb 26, 2024
When should you invest in distressed stocks?
We discuss the optimal timing of a strategy that invests in firms that are close to bankruptcy In a previous post, we provided evidence...
![](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/a4fe9b_86bf407eaf0a498392f48d020400c69a~mv2.webp/v1/fill/w_250,h_250,al_c,q_30,blur_30,enc_auto/a4fe9b_86bf407eaf0a498392f48d020400c69a~mv2.webp)
![Is there alpha in distressed stocks? (U.S. evidence)](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/a4fe9b_86bf407eaf0a498392f48d020400c69a~mv2.webp/v1/fill/w_474,h_474,al_c,q_90,enc_auto/a4fe9b_86bf407eaf0a498392f48d020400c69a~mv2.webp)
Feb 26, 2024
Is there alpha in distressed stocks? (U.S. evidence)
We investigate whether distressed stocks carry a premium after controlling for the exposure of the portfolio to common factors, such as...
![](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/a4fe9b_47b7f4c9bc8a4c1f86f8fcf3abf56025~mv2.webp/v1/fill/w_250,h_250,al_c,q_30,blur_30,enc_auto/a4fe9b_47b7f4c9bc8a4c1f86f8fcf3abf56025~mv2.webp)
![Is there alpha in distressed stocks across the world?](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/a4fe9b_47b7f4c9bc8a4c1f86f8fcf3abf56025~mv2.webp/v1/fill/w_474,h_474,al_c,q_90,enc_auto/a4fe9b_47b7f4c9bc8a4c1f86f8fcf3abf56025~mv2.webp)
Feb 26, 2024
Is there alpha in distressed stocks across the world?
We investigate the existence of a distress premium, controlling for common factors such as market beta, size and value, around the world....
![](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/a4fe9b_59c8a1e1ffa8473da9edea8a24bf7f85~mv2.webp/v1/fill/w_250,h_250,al_c,q_30,blur_30,enc_auto/a4fe9b_59c8a1e1ffa8473da9edea8a24bf7f85~mv2.webp)
![How much is default risk captured by other factors?](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/a4fe9b_59c8a1e1ffa8473da9edea8a24bf7f85~mv2.webp/v1/fill/w_474,h_416,al_c,q_90,enc_auto/a4fe9b_59c8a1e1ffa8473da9edea8a24bf7f85~mv2.webp)
Feb 26, 2024
How much is default risk captured by other factors?
Is there a distress risk factor? And how much of this factor is explained by other risk factors? In previous posts, we have discussed the...
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![Is there a systematic component to distress risk?](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/a4fe9b_4665ad6d024c4b94af4a239549623fac~mv2.webp/v1/fill/w_474,h_474,al_c,q_90,enc_auto/a4fe9b_4665ad6d024c4b94af4a239549623fac~mv2.webp)
Feb 26, 2024
Is there a systematic component to distress risk?
We investigate whether the systematic component of distress risk carries a premium Asset pricing theory states that those who bear...
![](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/a4fe9b_6c245b3fa89f4288bea838a441680bda~mv2.jpg/v1/fill/w_250,h_250,fp_0.50_0.50,q_30,blur_30,enc_auto/a4fe9b_6c245b3fa89f4288bea838a441680bda~mv2.webp)
![What drives stock price movements?](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/a4fe9b_6c245b3fa89f4288bea838a441680bda~mv2.jpg/v1/fill/w_474,h_366,fp_0.50_0.50,q_90,enc_auto/a4fe9b_6c245b3fa89f4288bea838a441680bda~mv2.webp)
Feb 23, 2024
What drives stock price movements?
We discuss the relative importance of cash flow news versus discount rate news, in explaining the volatility of aggregate stock returns...
![](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/a4fe9b_a778f8d885d642f8be89c468750031bf~mv2.jpg/v1/fill/w_250,h_250,fp_0.50_0.50,q_30,blur_30,enc_auto/a4fe9b_a778f8d885d642f8be89c468750031bf~mv2.webp)
![Does the dividend/price ratio predict returns?](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/a4fe9b_a778f8d885d642f8be89c468750031bf~mv2.jpg/v1/fill/w_474,h_474,fp_0.50_0.50,q_90,enc_auto/a4fe9b_a778f8d885d642f8be89c468750031bf~mv2.webp)
Feb 23, 2024
Does the dividend/price ratio predict returns?
We discuss the predictability of aggregate stock market returns using currently observed dividend-price ratios Return predictability is...
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![Is there a jackpot in distressed equity?](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/a4fe9b_481b328f7c40427eb6cd7896dbb67edf~mv2.webp/v1/fill/w_474,h_474,al_c,q_90,enc_auto/a4fe9b_481b328f7c40427eb6cd7896dbb67edf~mv2.webp)
Feb 17, 2024
Is there a jackpot in distressed equity?
Are distressed stocks more likely to generate returns above 100%? We have done a series of posts on the returns of distress stocks. We...
![](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/a4fe9b_8adbc928d4264b618baa662d267a6ca2~mv2.webp/v1/fill/w_250,h_250,al_c,q_30,blur_30,enc_auto/a4fe9b_8adbc928d4264b618baa662d267a6ca2~mv2.webp)
![Do firms with higher leverage deliver higher returns?](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/a4fe9b_8adbc928d4264b618baa662d267a6ca2~mv2.webp/v1/fill/w_474,h_474,al_c,q_90,enc_auto/a4fe9b_8adbc928d4264b618baa662d267a6ca2~mv2.webp)
Feb 2, 2024
Do firms with higher leverage deliver higher returns?
We review a classic question on the relation between financial risk and equity returns, and discover that the evidence defies the theory...
![](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/a4fe9b_714ded6706294d92b5419396bd3170f4~mv2.webp/v1/fill/w_250,h_250,al_c,q_30,blur_30,enc_auto/a4fe9b_714ded6706294d92b5419396bd3170f4~mv2.webp)
![What is the relation between asset risk and leverage?](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/a4fe9b_714ded6706294d92b5419396bd3170f4~mv2.webp/v1/fill/w_474,h_474,al_c,q_90,enc_auto/a4fe9b_714ded6706294d92b5419396bd3170f4~mv2.webp)
Feb 2, 2024
What is the relation between asset risk and leverage?
We discuss how financial risk and asset risk are co-determined, and how this is reflected in the beta of assets and in the beta of equity...
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![Do firms have target leverage ratios?](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/a4fe9b_caba8e8629d84458b923b2be45779e70~mv2.webp/v1/fill/w_474,h_453,al_c,q_90,enc_auto/a4fe9b_caba8e8629d84458b923b2be45779e70~mv2.webp)
Jan 14, 2024
Do firms have target leverage ratios?
We examine whether firms pursue an optimum leverage ratio, what factors affect optimum leverage, and how fast firms converge towards the...
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![Fishing for Alpha and catching Beta](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/a4fe9b_082d0e0348c242de9b46afb59363d9b3~mv2.webp/v1/fill/w_474,h_474,al_c,q_90,enc_auto/a4fe9b_082d0e0348c242de9b46afb59363d9b3~mv2.webp)
Jan 14, 2024
Fishing for Alpha and catching Beta
We examine the implications of rewarding portfolio managers on the basis of Alpha, and how this can lead to an increase in the Beta of...
![](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/b1604a1dee95437e91d42edafdae2db9.jpg/v1/fill/w_250,h_250,fp_0.50_0.50,q_30,blur_30,enc_auto/b1604a1dee95437e91d42edafdae2db9.webp)
![Do financially constrained firms generate higher returns?](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/b1604a1dee95437e91d42edafdae2db9.jpg/v1/fill/w_474,h_474,fp_0.50_0.50,q_90,enc_auto/b1604a1dee95437e91d42edafdae2db9.webp)
Jan 14, 2024
Do financially constrained firms generate higher returns?
We examine the effect of financing constraints on corporate investment, risk and equity returns In corporate finance, financing...
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